James M. Murray, PhD

Fiscal policy reactions and impact over the labor income distribution

James M. Murray
Economic Analysis and Policy, Volume 83, pages 701-718, 2024.

Abstract: This paper investigates the implications of fiscal policy for labor income inequality through two causal channels. First, I estimate how fiscal policy reacts to negative income shocks happening at different points on the labor income distribution, to examine whether fiscal policy responds differently when there are changes in income for low-income earners, versus median-income earners or high-income earners. Secondly, I estimate the impact that various fiscal policies have on labor market income at the low, median, and high ends. I consider eight different fiscal policy variables, including four types of government transfer variables shown to be countercyclical, government consumption and government investment, and personal versus corporate tax revenue. Embedding each fiscal policy variable into a Bayesian structural vector autoregression, I estimate both the reaction of each fiscal policy variable to shocks to labor income at three points of the labor income distribution, and the impact of shocks to each fiscal policy variable on labor income along the same three points of the distribution. Impulse response functions show most fiscal policies are more responsive to shocks to the low end of the income distribution. The impulse response functions also show that it is often the median and upper-end of the income distribution that benefit most from fiscal expansions, leading to greater income inequality. The results also reveal that the fiscal policies most effective for boosting income at low income levels also lead to the largest increases in income inequality. Finally, I find that the fiscal policies most effective for stimulating labor income are also the least responsive to labor income shocks.

Digital Collectibles: Exploring Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) Through Twitter Messages

Peter Haried and James M. Murray
Journal of International Technology and Information Management, Volume 32, pages 59-79, 2023.

Abstract: The growing popularity of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has created a new digital collectibles asset class and market. NFTs are unique digital tokens built on blockchain technology that can represent anything from art, property rights, certificates of authentication to sports collectibles. The use of blockchain provides the framework for digital ownership and brings the notion of scarcity to the digital NFT asset class. With the emerging NFT market and growing consumer base little work has investigated the factors behind NFT interest and participation. Using a dataset of 26,444 tweets on NBA Top Shot, one of the largest and most popular NFT platforms for digital sport collectibles, we use exploratory data and content analysis to generate insights from NFT Twitter messages. Our results suggest that both hedonic and utilitarian factors are driving NFT interests and should be considered by NFT platforms to encourage participation. Our results show that consumer messages on NFTs are based on the ability to demonstrate ownership, compete against other collectors, provide personal enjoyment and for the opportunity to receive financial returns. This research is one of the first to examine the factors exploring NFT Twitter messages and our results provide early insights for practitioners and academics interested in exploring NFT digital collectibles.

Implications for Determinacy with Average Inflation Targeting

Yamin Ahmad and James M. Murray
Economics Bulletin, Forthcoming, 2023.

Abstract: We use a standard New Keynesian model to explore implications of backward- and forward-looking windows for monetary policy with average inflation targeting and investigate the conditions for determinacy. A unique equilibrium rules out sunspot shocks that can lead to self-fulfilling shocks for inflation expectations. We find limitations for the length of the forward window and demonstrate how this depends on other parameters in the model, including parameters governing monetary policy and expectations formation.

James M. Murray, Sloan Komissarov, Sara Cook, and Brenda L. Murray
Journal of Pedagogical Sociology and Psychology, Volume 4, pages 423-429, 2022.

Abstract: Mindset and sense of belonging are important predictors for college student success. Mindset refers to beliefs on how or whether intelligence can grow with time and effort. Belonging refers to students' sense of being respected and supported in their college environment. We measure several dimensions of mindset and belonging and educational and demographic background information for more than 2,000 students at two four-year universities including a public and a private university. We estimate factor analysis models to construct measures for mindset and belonging and we explore predictors for these including educational and demographic characteristics and frequency of instructor feedback to students. We find that formative instructor feedback on writing leads to improvements in mindset, belonging, perseverance, and confidence. We also find that frequent feedback on writing improves students’ mindset regarding mathematics. We also find explanatory power from semesters in college, parents' educational attainment, race, and students' chosen fields of study.

Sloan Komissarov and James M. Murray
Journal of Academic Librianship, Volume 42(4), pages 423-429, 2016.

Abstract: Informed from a survey we administered to undergraduate students on their information seeking behavior, we identify variables that influence how students conduct their search for sources, what types of sources they select, and what attributes of their sources they value. These variables relate to student academic characteristics, demographics, and actions that have been taken by instructors and library staff. With a thorough understanding of students' information seeking process and its influences, we find opportunities for instructors and librarians to have a positive influence.

Pedro de Araujo and James M. Murray
Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 37(4), pages 548-576, 2015.

Abstract:The spread of HIV and AIDS and risky sexual behavior continues to be a problem in Sub-Saharan African countries despite government measures to educate people on the risk and severity of the disease and measures to promote safe sex practices such as making condoms readily available at reduced or no cost. We examine whether people decide to engage in risky sexual behavior due to low income and low life expectancy. Sub-Saharan Africa is characterized by conditions that significantly reduce life expectancy such as unsanitary conditions prevalent in poverty stricken areas, inaccessibility to health care, and dangerous working conditions such as those in very poor mining regions. Moreover, since income per capita in these countries is very low, the opportunity cost associated with dying from AIDS and foregoing future consumption is very low. We examine how a government provided life insurance benefit may be an effective means of deterring risky sexual behavior. To evaluate this policy prescription we develop a life-cycle model with personal and family consumption and endogenous probability of survival. In the model, agents can receive life insurance benefits if their death is not the result of AIDS. We demonstrate that excessive risky behavior does result from low life expectancy and low levels of income and illustrate the conditions for which the life insurance benefit can replicate the effects of higher income and life expectancy, deterring risky sexual behavior and reducing the spread of HIV/AIDS.

Elizabeth Knowles and James M. Murray
Journal of Education for Business, Volume 89(8), pages 389-395, 2014.

Abstract:Students often struggle to select appropriate statistical tests when investigating research questions. The authors present a lesson study designed to make students’ thought processes visible while considering this choice. The authors taught their students a way to organize knowledge about statistical tests and observed its impact in the classroom and in students’ written work. The results from this intervention were mixed, but the authors discuss where they found evidence for improvement in students’ performance and thought processes. The classroom observations revealed that students have difficulty identifying variables and understanding the precise use of statistical language.

Nicholas Herro and James M. Murray
Economics Bulletin, Volume 33(1), pages 257-270, 2013.

Abstract: A large literature lauds the benefits of central bank transparency and credibility, but when a central bank like the U.S. Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, is not specific to the extent it targets employment versus price stability, and is not specific to the magnitude interest rates should change in response to these targets, market participants must depend largely on past data to form expectations about monetary policy. We suppose market participants estimate a Taylor-like regression equation to understand the conduct of monetary policy, which likely guides their short-run and long-run expectations. When the Federal Reserve's actions deviate from its historical targets for macroeconomic variables, an environment of greater uncertainty may be the result. We quantify this degree of uncertainty by measuring and aggregating recent deviations of the federal funds rate from econometric forecasts predicted by constant gain learning. We incorporate this measure of uncertainty into a VAR model with ARCH shocks to measure the effect monetary policy uncertainty has on inflation, output growth, unemployment, and the volatility of these variables. We find that a higher degree of uncertainty regarding monetary policy is associated with greater volatility of output growth and unemployment.

James M. Murray
Journal of Economic Education, Volume 43(3), page 348, 2012.

Abstract:A 'Pencast' is a video of someone writing on a notebook page, while describing what they are writing. It is made with a special ballpoint pen, called a SmartPen and made by LiveScribe, that has a small video camera looking at the tip and a microphone to record audio. I created Pencasts that teach common material in Introductory Macroeconomics, covering nine topics from the course (each topic includes 2-8 Pencasts, for a total of 40 Pencasts). The style of these Pencasts are friendly and inviting, and emphasize intuition behind graphical modeling and problem solving, which is effectively taught by practicing problems with students. Each pencast is short (2-9 minutes in length, most are 4-6 minutes) with a specific focus. Some focus on a specific aspect of a concept, like what shifts an investment demand curve; others describe a worked out example, like how to use and compute the expenditure multiplier.

Michael Haupert and James M. Murray
Cliometrica, Volume 6(2), pages 143-162, 2012.

Abstract:Over the course of the twentieth century, American wages increased by a factor of about 100, while the wages of professional baseball players increased by a factor of 450, but that increase was neither smooth nor consistent. We use a unique and expansive dataset of salaries and performance variables of Major League Baseball pitchers that spans over 400 players and 60 years during the reserve clause era to identify factors that determine salaries and examine how the importance of various factors have changed over time. We employ a Markov regime-switching regression model borrowed from the macroeconomics literature, which allows regression coefficients to switch exogenously between two or more values as time progresses. This method lets us identify changes in wage determination that may have occurred because of a change in the league’s competitiveness, a change in the relative bargaining power between players and teams, or other factors that may be unknown or unobservable. We find that even though Major League Baseball was a tightly controlled monopsony with the reserve clause, there was a significant shift in salary determination that lasted from the Great Depression until after World War II where players’ salaries were more highly linked to their recent performance.

Pedro de Araujo and James M. Murray
American Journal of Business Education, Volume 3(12), pages 57-64, 2010.

Abstract: In a recent study, de Araujo and Murray (2010) find empirical evidence that living on campus leads to improved student performance, finding both immediate effects (GPA improves while the student lives on campus) and permanent effects (GPA remains higher even after moving off campus). Using the same dataset, we extend the analysis to explain why students that live on campus perform better. We examine two possible channels. First, we examine whether on-campus students are more likely to take advantage of university provided resources (libraries, tutors, computer technology, university sponsored extracurricular activities, etc) than off-campus students. Secondly, we examine peer influences and interactions, including collaborative studying with friends and/or classmates and engagement in drug and alcohol consumption. For both these channels, we look for evidence of immediate and permanent effects. We find significant peer-effect channels that explain the positive permanent effect of academic performance from living on campus, and find two channels that explain why students should immediately perform better while they live on campus, but the evidence does not point to utilization of university resources.

Pedro de Araujo and James M. Murray
Economics Bulletin, Volume 30(1), pages 866-878, 2010.

Abstract:Many large universities require freshman to live in dormitories on the basis that living on campus leads to better classroom performance and lower drop out incidence. Large universities also provide a number of academic services in dormitories such as tutoring and student organizations that encourage an environment condusive to learning. A survey was administered to college students at a large state school to determine what impact dormitory living has on student performance. We use a handful of instrumental variable strategies to account for the possibly endogenous decision to live on campus. We find a robust result across model specifications and estimation techniques that on average, living on campus increases GPA by between 0.19 to 0.97. That is, the estimate for the degree of improvement to student performance caused by living on campus ranges between one-fifth to one full letter grade.

Glenn Knowles, James M. Murray, Keith Sherony and Michael Haupert
Cliometrica, Volume 12(1), pages 59-71, 2003.

Abstract:Shirking has become an issue in professional sports with the advent of long-term guaranteed contracts, particularly because pay is largely uncoupled from performance. Baseball player-owner relations are a classic example of the principal-agent problem, which investigates incentive problems between contracting parties. The agent (player) is said to shirk if he chooses not to undertake efficient actions measured in terms of on-field performance. From the viewpoint of the principal (owner), actions are considered efficient when they afford the greatest opportunity for profit. Shirking, or inefficient action, is most likely to occur when contracts do not satisfy the incentive compatibility constraint. The constraint is satisfied when the contract spells out incentives that cause the agent to take efficient actions. In the case of both one-year contracts with a reserve clause and long-term guaranteed contracts in Major League baseball (MLB), there may be inadequate financial incentives for players to perform to the best of their ability, that is, efficiently.